VALUEBETENNIS
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Tennis value betting guide

Four short answers, each with its formula, a worked example on our corpus and an FAQ. What we know, with its measurement; what we do not know, said as such.

Value bet: definition, formula and worked example

A value bet is a bet whose odds exceed the fair odds. Formula EV = p × c − 1, worked example, where the probability comes from, and what 59,960 ATP matches show about how rare value is.

Reading odds: implied probability, bookmaker margin, opening and closing

How to convert decimal odds into a probability, compute the bookmaker's margin, and why closing odds say more than opening odds. Average margin measured on the corpus since 2021.

Measuring the accuracy of a tennis prediction: what a hit rate does not tell you

A hit rate proves nothing on its own: compare it with the market favourite on the same matches, measure on unseen seasons and judge ROI at flat stakes. Evaluation grid and published figures.

Tennis database: where to download results and odds

Comparison of open tennis results databases (tennis-data.co.uk, Jeff Sackmann, Valuebetennis): period, columns, odds, licence, freshness, and a five-line analysis example.

To go further: the full methodology, the model's measured accuracy, the data as CSV.